* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922021 10/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 41 41 40 35 30 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 41 41 40 35 30 26 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 27 26 25 25 26 26 27 27 24 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 33 31 34 27 22 28 27 26 28 50 53 71 61 64 67 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -7 0 0 1 -4 -3 -3 0 -5 -10 -7 -19 -10 -10 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 259 246 219 218 218 260 300 301 292 268 270 277 284 278 265 248 243 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.6 25.8 25.3 26.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.3 26.8 27.3 27.3 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 126 131 131 111 106 113 120 118 117 110 126 132 131 123 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 102 106 109 110 93 88 93 100 101 102 100 115 122 121 111 100 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -57.1 -57.0 -56.7 -56.2 -55.8 -55.6 -55.2 -55.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.6 -56.5 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.9 -0.2 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 2 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 62 65 63 62 58 49 45 43 44 51 52 57 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 15 15 11 8 6 3 3 1 3 6 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 32 47 37 17 -15 -59 -30 -30 -25 -46 -47 -22 -11 3 -9 -36 200 MB DIV 11 36 46 31 25 20 38 12 -18 -31 -32 -13 2 10 28 38 23 700-850 TADV 8 5 7 9 15 17 20 6 -4 -16 -26 -22 -14 -7 1 7 13 LAND (KM) 370 359 335 281 225 124 184 297 477 655 925 1240 1562 1793 1857 1900 1914 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.0 32.5 33.3 34.1 36.1 37.3 37.7 37.1 36.2 34.7 33.0 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.5 74.1 74.0 74.1 74.4 73.5 71.8 69.7 67.2 64.2 60.7 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 7 8 10 9 7 8 10 13 15 18 20 21 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 14 20 30 4 2 3 10 2 1 0 4 16 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 3. -4. -9. -14. -23. -31. -43. -55. -65. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -14. -13. -9. -7. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 16. 16. 15. 10. 5. 1. -6. -10. -12. -18. -26. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.8 74.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922021 INVEST 10/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922021 INVEST 10/09/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 38 41 41 40 35 30 26 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 37 37 36 31 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 30 30 29 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT