Real-time Guidance for EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM HILARY (EP09)

This page provides plots and information for EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM HILARY (EP09). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 1800 UTC, 21 August 2023, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM HILARY (EP09) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 43.5°N and 116.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 33 kt at a bearing of 5 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.

Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

Vortex Data Messages

High Density Observation Bulletins (HDOBS)

Track guidance

Early cycle track guidance

Late cycle track guidance

Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics

Late cycle GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS

Extra late GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS

Late cycle GEFS track by VMAX

Late cycle GEFS track by MSLP

Late cycle GEFS track by TIME

Late cycle GEFS track by Vertical Shear

Late cycle GEFS track by SST

Late cycle GEFS track by Potential Intensity

Late cycle GEFS track by Total Precipitable Water

Late cycle GEFS track by Low-level Relative Humidity

Late cycle GEFS track by Mid-level Relative Humidity

Late cycle GEFS track by Radius of Maximum Wind

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.

Intensity guidance

Early cycle intensity guidance

Late cycle experimental intensity guidance

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance

34-kt FHLO-ECMWF^*

50-kt FHLO-ECMWF^*

64-kt FHLO-ECMWF^*

83-kt FHLO-ECMWF^*

96-kt FHLO-ECMWF^*

34-kt FHLO-GEFS^*

50-kt FHLO-GEFS^*

64-kt FHLO-GEFS^*

83-kt FHLO-GEFS^*

96-kt FHLO-GEFS^*

^*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

history file (b-deck)

fixes file (f-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC Miami - U.S. National Hurricane Center

5-day Forecast with Uncertainty Cone

Surface Wind Field

Probability of Tropical Storm-force Winds (34-kt)

Probability of Storm-force Winds (50-kt Winds)

Probability of Hurricane-force Winds (64-kt)

Earliest Resonable Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)

Most Likely Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)

Environmental Diagnostics

SHIPS diagnostic message

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for HILARY

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)

Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)

Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for HILARY

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates More info

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

ARCHER Center-finding Technique

ARCHER Eyewall Replacement Cycle Diagnostic and Prediction

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)

Links to Radars Within 350 km of HILARY

ID ADA COUNTY/BOISE Loop

OR PENDLETON Loop

NV ELKO/LANDER 88D Loop

ID SPRINGFIELD/PIH Loop

Observations near HILARY

NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer