Real-time Guidance for FIFTEEN (EP15)

This page provides plots and information for FIFTEEN (EP15). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.


Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 1200 UTC, 11 October 2023, FIFTEEN (EP15) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 22.8°N and 101.7°W. The current intensity was -999 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.


Reconnaissance Aircraft Data


Track guidance


Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Vertical Shear has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by SST has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Potential Intensity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Total Precipitable Water has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Low-level Relative Humidity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Mid-level Relative Humidity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Radius of Maximum Wind has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.


Intensity guidance


Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.


ATCF data files

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

history file (b-deck)

fixes file (f-deck)




Environmental Diagnostics


Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for FIFTEEN
UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for FIFTEEN