* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922025 06/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 49 60 70 76 78 72 66 60 54 47 43 39 36 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 49 60 70 76 78 72 66 60 54 47 43 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 41 49 57 60 57 50 44 40 37 36 35 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 7 10 10 13 11 12 7 5 9 8 13 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 1 5 6 5 5 6 12 4 3 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 57 50 51 78 50 22 24 20 72 84 89 116 117 135 124 161 SST (C) 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.4 27.3 25.9 24.8 25.8 26.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 163 163 163 160 148 137 122 110 121 125 144 142 142 142 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 74 69 64 64 60 55 58 56 57 53 54 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 23 21 19 16 13 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 29 29 27 45 46 53 47 39 66 70 86 73 69 49 49 200 MB DIV 68 69 103 97 97 132 92 56 38 18 10 1 -26 16 32 22 27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -9 -7 -8 -7 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 326 316 292 288 295 273 290 366 523 642 779 890 954 944 905 850 833 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.6 17.6 17.3 16.5 15.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.2 100.2 101.0 101.8 102.7 104.4 106.2 107.9 109.7 111.4 113.0 113.9 114.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 7 5 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 40 36 33 23 12 6 4 4 4 6 10 10 8 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 15. 20. 17. 13. 8. 5. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 31. 40. 46. 48. 42. 36. 30. 24. 17. 13. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 99.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 27.0% 19.6% 16.5% 0.0% 25.6% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 34.7% 17.9% 9.4% 3.7% 20.3% 18.8% 2.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 9.8% 6.3% 1.5% 0.1% 1.8% 2.5% 0.5% Consensus: 6.1% 23.8% 14.6% 9.1% 1.3% 15.9% 13.9% 1.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 19.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.0% 22.9% 13.3% 7.0% 2.1% 13.4% 16.4% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 06/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##