* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 44 44 41 35 31 29 27 24 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 40 44 44 41 35 31 29 27 24 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 36 33 29 25 22 19 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 15 16 25 26 29 33 33 30 20 12 11 13 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 4 0 2 3 -3 4 0 5 7 SHEAR DIR 66 52 66 67 79 86 73 75 65 64 70 75 112 168 200 205 219 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.8 27.8 27.1 26.0 25.4 23.7 23.4 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 157 157 155 149 147 151 141 134 123 116 99 96 97 97 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 76 76 76 73 74 72 72 67 63 54 49 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 30 29 31 56 56 48 12 3 34 46 69 65 79 53 70 200 MB DIV 79 50 42 66 76 80 99 63 20 -16 25 53 34 57 19 -1 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -5 -1 -4 -8 -20 -22 -6 -11 -1 -3 8 LAND (KM) 1073 1105 1116 1099 1094 1053 1048 1016 952 822 647 498 464 493 482 568 733 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 12.1 12.6 12.9 12.8 13.3 14.6 16.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.3 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.3 111.8 111.7 110.7 109.4 108.5 108.4 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 5 2 3 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 48 48 48 44 40 37 39 36 25 12 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. 34. 31. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -27. -28. -27. -23. -20. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 19. 16. 10. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 108.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.69 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.43 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.4% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 14.5% 4.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.6% 4.2% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 12.8% 7.7% 0.7% 0.5% 8.3% 7.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: .9% 7.9% 4.8% .8% .2% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##