* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 43 48 52 50 47 44 41 36 30 24 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 43 48 52 50 47 44 41 36 30 24 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 32 30 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 15 23 20 24 25 27 24 9 3 13 12 13 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -3 -5 -2 -2 4 1 3 1 9 2 11 5 7 6 SHEAR DIR 91 103 88 79 85 76 74 67 66 66 55 148 230 220 235 238 256 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.0 25.1 23.7 23.2 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 152 150 143 139 139 139 133 113 99 95 92 86 86 84 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 78 77 76 74 73 69 67 63 56 47 39 37 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 13 15 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 60 69 72 64 40 26 16 33 62 87 74 68 73 61 53 200 MB DIV 66 72 94 101 131 130 81 15 34 47 3 16 -1 -20 -15 0 12 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -13 -26 -12 -11 -8 1 3 10 5 LAND (KM) 964 950 939 947 938 931 932 893 793 668 606 512 560 710 878 1065 1230 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.5 13.9 14.1 14.7 16.0 17.5 18.7 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.1 110.5 111.2 111.6 111.3 110.6 110.2 110.6 112.0 114.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 3 2 3 6 7 9 10 11 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 46 43 39 32 28 27 23 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -16. -14. -13. -11. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 18. 23. 27. 25. 22. 19. 16. 11. 5. -1. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 108.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.41 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 3.0% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 8.7% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 7.3% 7.1% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: .7% 7.8% 4.5% .5% 0% 4.6% 4.5% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##