* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 47 53 52 51 48 46 42 38 32 25 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 47 53 52 51 48 46 42 38 32 25 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 32 30 28 27 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 18 19 22 25 21 20 16 9 7 10 13 13 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -5 -2 4 4 3 1 0 5 5 5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 97 86 88 81 76 67 75 63 62 72 70 137 187 212 219 223 251 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.7 26.9 25.4 23.6 23.8 23.3 22.7 22.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 144 139 133 137 139 131 116 98 101 96 89 87 86 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 78 77 77 76 73 72 70 68 64 57 46 42 40 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 16 19 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 59 62 67 66 38 19 6 11 45 69 97 69 78 63 56 51 200 MB DIV 58 103 107 110 119 102 24 24 37 31 50 7 -11 -9 -24 -10 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 2 6 -13 -16 -12 -1 -9 10 0 9 0 LAND (KM) 968 943 926 914 909 901 898 849 764 664 610 535 591 754 907 1100 1253 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.5 14.6 15.1 16.2 17.5 18.6 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.8 111.4 111.7 111.2 110.6 110.3 110.9 112.3 114.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 4 1 3 5 7 7 9 10 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 42 37 34 26 22 22 20 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23. 21. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 7. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 27. 26. 23. 21. 17. 13. 7. 1. -6. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 109.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 3.4% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 10.4% 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 7.6% 7.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 7.0% 14.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.2% 15.7% 7.2% 1.1% .1% 7.3% 10.6% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##