* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912025 06/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 57 58 53 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 57 58 53 49 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 44 41 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 13 15 16 15 12 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 -3 4 5 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 97 73 66 67 85 87 80 58 254 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.6 23.8 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 150 146 145 135 132 123 118 100 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 77 76 77 75 70 66 59 57 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 15 15 19 19 20 18 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 66 62 76 67 52 42 31 45 80 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 88 90 81 86 72 63 33 40 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -5 -5 -8 -5 0 1 -17 -7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 985 972 966 966 972 984 942 851 684 501 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 4 3 6 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 43 39 34 28 18 13 9 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 27. 28. 23. 19. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 109.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 06/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.75 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.68 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.58 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 22.6% 17.9% 15.1% 0.0% 22.7% 19.0% 12.5% Logistic: 0.8% 6.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.2% 6.9% 5.3% 0.2% 7.7% 6.6% 4.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 10.0% 10.0% 4.0% SDCON: 3.3% 14.1% 7.9% 4.1% .6% 8.8% 8.3% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 06/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##