* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032025 06/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 40 44 40 37 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 40 44 40 37 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 32 29 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 16 17 17 18 15 6 5 6 2 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -8 -6 7 9 10 4 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 93 75 80 88 87 100 69 96 114 154 248 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.2 27.7 28.1 27.0 25.7 25.0 24.5 24.6 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 150 145 142 134 139 143 131 117 109 104 106 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 76 70 65 59 54 51 51 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 14 16 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 66 56 53 54 52 52 79 87 93 74 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 49 65 70 58 58 1 27 4 9 -13 -27 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 -6 -4 -2 12 5 12 2 0 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 975 961 954 954 956 947 870 786 740 701 657 651 688 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 38 32 26 20 11 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 10. 14. 10. 7. 4. 1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 110.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 THREE 06/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 18.4% 14.8% 12.3% 0.0% 19.3% 16.6% 11.6% Logistic: 0.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.1% 5.2% 4.1% 0.1% 6.5% 5.5% 4.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% 13.0% 8.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.7% 17.5% 10.1% 4.5% 1.0% 9.7% 6.7% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 THREE 06/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##