* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 41 39 36 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 41 39 36 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 46 43 39 35 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 22 25 22 23 19 19 10 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -8 -6 1 11 4 0 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 83 83 83 89 86 71 49 26 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 23.6 23.0 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 136 131 127 135 132 130 97 91 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 76 75 69 66 60 56 53 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 55 41 48 55 58 42 52 73 97 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 60 81 84 91 64 7 15 -5 -15 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -6 -3 -2 2 12 0 -7 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 935 919 910 948 963 937 877 802 592 560 698 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.4 18.0 18.6 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.1 111.5 112.2 112.9 113.6 113.4 113.3 112.2 112.8 114.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 3 3 6 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 32 26 21 16 11 8 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.0 110.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.49 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 19.0% 15.3% 12.8% 10.6% 18.6% 14.4% 8.6% Logistic: 0.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.5% 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 28.0% 17.0% 9.0% 4.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 5.6% 17.7% 11.2% 6.6% 3.9% 9.6% 3.9% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##