* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 45 43 40 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 46 45 43 40 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 43 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 13 14 19 22 21 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 0 3 3 7 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 91 93 78 73 66 54 83 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.8 27.6 24.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 145 141 135 139 138 102 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 71 67 64 57 54 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 17 17 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 62 51 44 33 37 63 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 38 37 34 17 -19 23 -14 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -1 0 1 -22 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 992 1017 1019 1006 993 944 845 668 568 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.2 17.7 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.2 114.1 114.3 114.6 114.4 113.8 113.2 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 6 3 2 4 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 16 13 11 8 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 112.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 16.4% 13.2% 10.9% 8.7% 14.8% 13.3% 5.8% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.0% 5.0% 4.4% 1.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 18.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 11.9% 7.8% 5.8% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% .9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##