* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 62 62 63 62 56 44 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 62 62 63 62 56 44 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 60 62 63 62 60 53 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 18 23 20 14 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 8 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 93 77 63 58 73 64 13 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 24.7 23.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 140 138 139 109 91 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 70 68 62 57 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 14 17 20 19 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 44 44 34 28 55 69 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 39 47 35 8 21 15 -20 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 0 6 2 -15 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 998 981 966 967 969 875 702 583 501 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.9 17.3 18.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.3 113.8 113.1 113.2 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 11 11 6 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. 2. 4. 4. -0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 1. -11. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 113.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.40 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 24.5% 18.4% 15.4% 12.0% 19.7% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 9.4% 6.8% 5.2% 4.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 26.0% 17.0% 13.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.5% 17.7% 11.9% 9.1% 6.7% 4.3% 2.7% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##