* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 63 59 53 44 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 63 59 53 44 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 64 65 64 62 54 44 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 16 20 21 19 14 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 6 8 4 1 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 81 70 71 73 78 47 37 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.5 23.5 22.9 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 131 132 133 127 96 89 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 67 65 58 51 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 17 16 17 15 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 59 54 41 39 51 77 92 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 24 33 25 9 19 -8 -21 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 8 10 1 -8 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 972 971 974 944 915 806 646 546 552 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.6 18.1 19.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.2 114.6 114.5 114.4 113.8 113.5 113.7 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 3 4 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 8 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -7. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -16. -27. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 113.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.33 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.94 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 20.5% 16.1% 13.6% 10.3% 16.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.4% 5.8% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.2% 5.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.2% 2.6% 1.6% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/09/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##