* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/10/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 54 48 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 54 48 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 55 52 44 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 15 19 15 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 7 5 -1 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 69 66 67 58 43 29 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.2 27.1 24.2 23.1 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 133 133 103 91 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 61 58 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 18 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 35 30 22 28 58 72 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 14 37 49 35 3 -20 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 5 2 3 -8 -7 -16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 978 969 960 910 860 693 573 500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.5 18.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.6 114.7 114.4 114.1 113.3 113.2 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 6 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -5. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -23. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.2 114.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/10/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.31 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 16.7% 12.6% 10.3% 7.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 3.4% 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/10/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##