* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032025 06/10/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 47 44 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 47 44 36 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 42 35 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 17 16 11 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 3 4 3 4 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 68 68 71 65 50 329 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.1 23.3 22.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 132 123 94 87 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 59 59 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 19 28 35 55 70 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 33 49 29 17 -22 -37 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 0 -5 -12 -10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 964 937 910 846 781 625 524 463 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.8 18.2 19.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.6 114.5 114.1 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 6 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -19. -29. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.4 114.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032025 COSME 06/10/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.34 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.15 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.89 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.3% 10.0% 7.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.5% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% .9% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032025 COSME 06/10/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##