* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/12/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 59 71 79 86 82 75 68 63 57 51 47 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 59 71 79 86 82 75 68 63 57 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 30 36 43 48 48 43 38 35 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 22 17 15 15 13 14 12 16 19 15 7 9 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 1 2 3 0 3 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 43 50 70 68 57 68 87 49 49 37 47 60 56 32 38 63 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.5 29.2 28.8 27.4 25.5 23.9 25.7 25.7 26.3 25.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 160 161 164 160 157 154 140 121 104 122 119 122 121 98 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 81 82 85 84 83 86 84 83 80 77 70 67 60 59 59 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 17 22 25 26 32 31 30 28 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 43 50 53 67 93 85 95 103 86 104 116 125 99 62 18 200 MB DIV 101 85 109 141 169 140 154 112 63 63 28 31 9 -7 -8 -33 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 -7 -11 -13 -9 -9 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 707 699 682 647 610 499 361 239 184 187 380 603 893 1132 1198 1119 944 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.6 13.1 14.7 16.3 17.5 18.2 17.9 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.0 99.2 99.1 98.9 98.8 99.3 100.5 102.5 105.1 108.5 112.2 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 4 7 9 11 13 15 17 18 13 8 2 6 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 36 36 37 40 44 37 29 15 4 2 2 11 15 11 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 41. 40. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 25. 33. 31. 27. 22. 19. 14. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 39. 51. 59. 66. 62. 55. 48. 43. 37. 31. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 98.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -6.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 10.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.2% 8.8% 40.4% 45.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 8.4% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 2.9% 13.5% 17.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: .1% 4.8% 1.4% .2% 0% 2.4% 8.7% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##