* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932025 06/12/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 54 64 74 72 68 59 49 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 54 64 74 72 68 59 49 37 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 45 52 57 56 51 46 38 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 19 17 17 22 18 19 16 22 19 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 1 0 3 0 0 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 61 46 55 65 85 68 84 75 71 63 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.3 28.4 28.0 26.6 25.0 25.2 24.8 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 161 158 157 148 145 130 113 115 111 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 87 86 86 83 82 79 72 66 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 19 21 24 28 25 24 22 19 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 47 50 57 72 79 74 71 63 70 70 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 164 166 144 163 163 117 73 69 33 14 -27 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -3 -5 -6 -9 -12 -4 -6 -7 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 599 571 544 506 464 417 395 374 444 578 660 733 882 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 9 10 11 11 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 43 45 47 48 46 38 26 12 7 4 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 27. 28. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 14. 11. 7. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 24. 34. 44. 42. 38. 29. 19. 7. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 100.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.28 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -16.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.93 -7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 153.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.92 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.40 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 32.8% 19.8% 16.6% 0.0% 25.9% 23.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 5.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 4.1% 27.0% 12.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 4.4% 14.5% 7.5% 5.9% 0.1% 10.0% 16.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 9.0% 27.0% 3.0% SDCON: 3.7% 18.7% 11.2% 5.9% 1.0% 9.5% 21.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 06/12/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##