* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042025 06/13/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 52 62 66 64 56 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 52 62 66 64 56 47 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 40 45 47 44 39 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 17 20 22 22 19 23 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 54 65 69 81 76 83 77 68 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.3 27.5 26.8 24.7 25.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 158 156 147 139 132 110 114 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.2 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 85 85 81 79 78 71 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 22 22 25 24 23 21 20 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 53 57 75 85 89 77 77 79 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 165 154 139 148 155 99 107 65 33 24 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -5 -7 -6 -5 -6 -8 -7 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 579 519 456 427 401 374 324 383 512 622 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.9 16.2 16.9 17.5 17.5 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.6 102.3 103.8 105.5 107.5 109.5 111.5 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 47 48 47 44 36 20 10 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 32. 36. 34. 26. 17. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 100.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.31 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -9.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.91 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.41 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 29.2% 19.1% 15.9% 0.0% 22.9% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 8.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 4.4% 15.1% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.2% 13.2% 7.5% 5.8% 0.1% 9.1% 11.4% 1.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 25.0% 14.0% 5.0% 2.0% 19.0% 18.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.1% 19.1% 10.7% 5.4% 1.0% 14.0% 14.7% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##