* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042025 06/13/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 43 47 58 60 58 50 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 43 47 58 60 58 50 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 39 36 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 14 16 19 21 21 20 25 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 67 76 72 82 74 86 93 68 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 26.8 25.7 25.0 24.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 156 154 148 144 132 120 113 102 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 84 84 86 84 81 78 74 71 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 22 21 27 23 23 20 17 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 58 56 73 73 84 82 79 73 74 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 154 139 136 134 126 91 95 64 41 5 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -6 -5 -7 -6 -4 -9 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 499 442 395 378 371 316 335 446 606 650 753 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.1 101.5 102.3 103.2 104.7 106.5 108.6 110.6 112.6 114.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 48 45 41 36 27 13 7 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 7. 6. 7. 4. -0. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 17. 29. 30. 28. 20. 9. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 100.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 22.5% 16.6% 13.7% 0.0% 19.6% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 8.6% 5.9% 4.7% 0.0% 6.9% 6.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 25.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 19.0% 15.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 16.8% 9.4% 4.8% 1.0% 12.9% 10.6% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##