* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042025 06/13/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 53 52 50 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 53 52 50 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 36 33 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 20 23 24 21 19 21 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 3 1 1 0 3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 76 76 86 86 93 98 72 66 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.6 25.9 24.4 24.2 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 149 145 142 130 122 107 104 92 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 80 77 76 67 64 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 20 22 25 21 20 16 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 78 82 83 86 74 71 74 62 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 136 120 121 109 104 87 74 52 6 -14 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -8 -5 -5 -1 -8 -2 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 396 360 326 312 286 270 360 515 567 628 720 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.0 102.6 103.4 104.2 105.8 107.9 109.9 111.8 113.5 115.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 41 35 31 26 14 7 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 2. 1. -4. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 22. 20. 10. 0. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 101.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.30 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.74 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 19.6% 14.3% 11.5% 0.0% 16.6% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 14.7% 3.5% 2.0% 0.6% 2.8% 3.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 13.1% 6.8% 4.7% 0.2% 6.5% 5.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 24.0% 12.0% 5.0% 2.0% 14.0% 9.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 18.5% 9.4% 4.8% 1.1% 10.2% 7.4% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 FOUR 06/13/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##