* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042025 06/13/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 47 50 48 46 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 47 50 48 46 37 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 41 38 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 24 21 18 18 21 29 24 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 5 4 1 -1 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 81 89 84 90 92 79 61 63 58 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.5 23.2 22.3 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 140 138 134 126 118 94 84 90 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 80 78 76 69 63 56 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 23 25 20 19 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 91 91 91 92 86 79 73 69 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 136 114 101 93 84 38 -4 -6 -35 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -10 -6 -11 -3 -3 -6 -9 -13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 303 269 246 238 260 409 510 555 647 784 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.8 103.5 104.3 105.0 106.7 108.9 110.8 112.5 114.2 116.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 32 28 23 18 9 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 15. 13. 11. 2. -9. -19. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 102.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 DALILA 06/13/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.63 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.23 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 22.3% 15.5% 12.3% 9.5% 17.6% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 13.1% 6.2% 4.6% 3.3% 6.5% 5.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 14.0% 7.0% 4.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.9% 19.0% 10.1% 5.8% 3.6% 8.2% 4.1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 DALILA 06/13/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##