* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042025 06/14/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 42 41 38 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 42 41 38 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 33 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 20 20 14 24 26 21 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 0 4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 81 74 89 87 67 59 70 66 60 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.2 24.2 23.0 22.7 23.6 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 139 135 130 125 104 92 88 97 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 78 76 75 68 64 55 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 23 22 20 18 15 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 77 83 77 67 72 74 63 67 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 106 92 92 96 55 13 16 -24 -59 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -8 -7 -9 -2 -7 -3 -6 -8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 302 272 263 270 341 489 546 616 707 798 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.0 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.4 104.1 105.1 106.0 107.9 109.8 111.8 113.3 114.7 115.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 30 26 19 13 6 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -3. -14. -23. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 102.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.19 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 17.5% 12.8% 10.1% 7.6% 15.3% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.3% 4.5% 3.5% 2.6% 5.3% 4.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 4.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 11.1% 5.7% 3.2% 1.8% 5.1% 2.7% .1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##