* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042025 06/14/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 52 50 44 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 52 50 44 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 51 49 44 36 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 14 16 15 17 28 23 22 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 4 5 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 64 74 79 64 54 54 69 62 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.7 23.8 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 134 131 127 120 100 89 92 93 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 78 78 68 64 56 49 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 21 21 19 16 13 11 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 76 73 78 65 71 65 62 53 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 84 69 74 54 20 3 0 -61 -54 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -8 -6 -9 -5 -3 -4 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 256 240 251 260 406 530 575 650 766 899 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.1 104.9 105.8 106.7 108.8 110.7 112.5 114.0 115.5 117.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 24 19 13 10 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. -1. -10. -21. -31. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 103.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.47 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.26 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 18.4% 14.0% 11.4% 8.7% 16.7% 12.6% 4.3% Logistic: 3.1% 9.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 3.9% 6.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 11.3% 6.3% 4.5% 3.0% 5.8% 4.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 9.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.5% 11.6% 7.1% 5.2% 3.5% 3.4% 2.1% .8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##