* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DALILA EP042025 06/14/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 56 55 51 43 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 56 55 51 43 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 54 53 51 45 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 13 14 20 23 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 -2 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 79 85 71 64 55 66 68 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.1 24.0 23.1 23.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 129 130 125 102 93 101 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 75 73 66 63 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 19 18 18 16 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 73 73 72 57 57 65 56 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 93 106 76 43 10 8 -14 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -9 -7 -3 -6 -3 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 259 261 261 316 391 539 576 698 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.0 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.3 106.2 107.3 108.4 110.5 112.3 114.2 116.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 17 12 8 5 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -7. -17. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.2 104.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.40 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 26.9% 18.0% 14.7% 11.4% 19.8% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.6% 24.4% 11.0% 4.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 5.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 17.6% 9.9% 6.5% 4.7% 6.9% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.6% 10.3% 5.9% 3.7% 2.8% 3.4% 2.3% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042025 DALILA 06/14/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##