* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * GIL EP072025 08/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 36 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 36 32 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 39 35 31 26 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 16 15 19 25 26 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 6 0 0 1 2 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 239 242 232 229 232 228 245 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.8 22.4 23.2 23.3 23.7 24.5 24.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 88 96 97 100 109 113 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 55 52 49 44 43 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 19 18 17 15 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 34 33 44 54 42 41 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 30 0 1 -4 10 -8 -7 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 0 -6 -1 -2 -3 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2025 2092 1975 1820 1667 1406 1136 859 649 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.9 134.4 135.9 137.4 138.9 141.5 144.2 147.1 149.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -23. -29. -33. -39. -44. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 132.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072025 GIL 08/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072025 GIL 08/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##