* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * EIGHT EP082025 08/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 45 47 48 45 42 40 38 36 33 34 36 35 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 45 47 48 45 42 40 38 36 33 34 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 40 38 35 32 28 26 24 22 21 20 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 5 5 9 6 6 6 2 3 10 12 9 14 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 1 0 0 1 -2 -1 2 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 12 70 106 160 206 186 181 228 194 163 141 128 138 219 212 200 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.8 24.4 25.2 24.0 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.9 25.5 26.0 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 136 131 128 123 108 116 104 96 102 105 113 120 125 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 69 71 67 63 56 54 51 49 47 45 40 40 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 18 19 20 20 20 19 17 15 15 15 14 12 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 64 71 74 73 76 68 61 59 58 52 40 17 -4 -13 -37 -50 200 MB DIV 31 7 0 -9 -14 7 4 -11 -6 -2 -7 7 -14 13 -6 17 7 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -2 2 3 3 6 6 7 5 2 LAND (KM) 1400 1449 1483 1532 1593 1696 1839 2021 2107 1768 1422 1103 835 623 494 489 540 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.8 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.8 124.1 126.6 129.3 132.0 134.7 137.9 141.2 144.3 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 15 16 14 14 14 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 16 14 9 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 15. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 18. 18. 15. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. 4. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 119.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 EIGHT 08/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 19.0% 15.6% 12.4% 0.0% 17.6% 15.8% 9.3% Logistic: 9.1% 33.5% 19.2% 7.2% 3.3% 2.5% 0.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 17.8% 11.6% 6.5% 1.1% 6.7% 5.5% 4.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 6.0% 9.0% 2.0% SDCON: 4.4% 15.9% 9.8% 4.7% 1.5% 6.3% 7.2% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 EIGHT 08/04/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##