* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 49 50 49 48 47 43 41 38 36 34 32 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 49 50 49 48 47 43 41 38 36 34 32 34 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 50 48 44 40 36 32 29 27 25 23 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 5 7 5 4 5 6 8 16 18 14 19 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 2 4 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 21 71 87 164 204 196 223 253 272 226 155 161 173 167 233 229 226 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.1 26.3 25.6 24.2 24.9 23.8 23.2 23.9 24.4 25.2 25.7 26.1 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 130 126 128 120 106 114 102 96 103 108 116 122 126 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 70 71 69 67 64 59 55 52 47 45 42 39 39 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 19 18 17 17 15 15 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 57 70 71 71 71 69 56 62 59 62 48 39 12 -1 -31 -52 -83 200 MB DIV 15 8 -8 -22 -28 5 -2 2 -13 0 -4 -12 -4 -23 2 -11 1 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 8 2 5 3 1 LAND (KM) 1406 1439 1475 1537 1597 1712 1861 2092 1959 1621 1287 997 782 622 527 541 621 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.2 122.3 123.6 124.8 127.3 129.9 133.0 136.1 139.3 142.5 145.4 147.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 16 13 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 120.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.6 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 12.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/04/25 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING