* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 55 55 55 51 47 45 41 36 35 33 32 33 35 34 V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 55 55 55 51 47 45 41 36 35 33 32 33 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 54 56 56 53 47 43 39 35 32 29 26 24 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 6 8 6 8 5 5 8 7 7 10 8 11 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 2 2 0 -2 -3 -2 0 1 1 1 -2 -3 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 76 104 172 189 204 186 186 227 201 216 200 169 170 177 232 234 228 SST (C) 27.2 26.5 26.1 26.5 25.8 24.9 25.4 24.3 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.1 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 126 130 123 113 119 108 101 102 104 107 116 122 125 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 70 68 64 60 57 52 50 44 44 39 36 34 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 19 17 15 16 15 13 13 12 11 10 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 68 68 67 65 63 58 52 59 62 64 48 23 0 -18 -41 -73 -92 200 MB DIV 0 -6 -21 -24 -6 16 9 -21 -7 5 -16 -6 -10 -3 -15 -13 14 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -2 1 0 2 -3 3 1 4 4 6 6 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1430 1483 1545 1613 1673 1837 2042 2083 1766 1468 1182 922 703 568 518 560 609 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.6 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.4 123.6 124.9 126.2 129.0 131.8 135.0 138.0 140.8 143.5 146.1 148.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 6 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 6. 2. -0. -4. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 121.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.6 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 14.0% 9.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING