* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 49 47 44 43 39 35 31 29 28 29 32 32 33 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 49 47 44 43 39 35 31 29 28 29 32 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 47 46 42 38 35 32 30 27 25 24 23 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 8 7 10 5 5 6 9 12 8 9 19 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 0 0 -6 -4 -1 1 2 -3 -3 -7 -3 -8 5 SHEAR DIR 109 178 197 204 191 189 200 225 169 198 166 159 158 225 240 220 198 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 26.2 25.6 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.5 23.6 23.9 24.9 25.4 26.0 26.1 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 127 121 122 116 113 107 99 99 103 113 118 124 125 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 66 66 60 57 52 47 45 44 41 38 36 36 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 17 19 17 16 16 15 13 12 12 10 11 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 67 66 66 57 58 59 63 58 44 18 -2 -27 -38 -49 -68 200 MB DIV -1 -20 -12 -12 7 12 -13 -12 -1 -9 0 8 -15 -17 32 27 31 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 1 5 3 5 3 2 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 1482 1546 1601 1676 1758 1940 2160 1913 1605 1318 1048 822 666 576 547 567 610 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.6 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.8 125.1 126.5 127.9 130.6 133.5 136.6 139.5 142.2 144.8 147.2 149.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 5 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -16. -13. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 122.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.6 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING