* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 39 34 32 28 25 22 22 22 24 26 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 42 39 34 32 28 25 22 22 22 24 26 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 40 36 33 30 28 26 23 21 19 18 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 11 10 10 8 6 4 11 12 13 12 17 16 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -7 -5 0 0 0 0 -5 -3 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 186 204 205 211 209 197 196 207 196 189 189 192 194 216 201 196 278 SST (C) 26.0 26.3 25.6 25.8 24.7 25.3 24.3 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.1 25.1 25.8 26.0 25.9 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 121 123 111 118 107 100 101 103 104 115 122 124 123 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 65 60 56 49 46 43 45 42 39 39 39 43 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 18 18 18 16 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 58 56 50 50 55 55 56 49 25 17 -9 -31 -46 -71 -73 200 MB DIV -26 -28 -16 0 12 11 -8 -7 2 -4 8 14 16 -7 3 7 -32 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 8 6 10 4 4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1538 1603 1665 1750 1838 2047 2094 1764 1444 1161 927 701 554 490 521 546 610 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.8 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.7 125.0 126.3 127.7 129.1 132.0 134.9 138.0 141.0 143.7 146.0 148.5 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -13. -17. -20. -23. -23. -23. -21. -19. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.6 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING