* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 39 37 35 31 29 26 25 24 25 28 32 34 37 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 39 37 35 31 29 26 25 24 25 28 32 34 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 28 26 24 22 21 20 21 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 8 9 3 7 11 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 -3 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 1 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 213 210 210 210 211 188 193 203 164 184 185 181 246 213 159 84 49 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.9 25.4 25.1 25.4 24.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.7 25.4 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 124 119 116 119 108 101 103 105 111 118 124 125 125 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 64 63 59 56 49 47 47 45 40 38 38 41 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 12 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 58 51 45 48 48 49 54 49 37 14 6 -23 -34 -54 -65 -68 200 MB DIV -32 -19 0 7 8 -2 -7 3 -4 2 3 -9 -24 -8 30 9 8 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 0 -1 2 0 6 3 9 3 3 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1579 1653 1735 1826 1925 2142 1942 1623 1328 1060 828 669 591 542 538 588 700 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.2 127.6 129.0 130.5 133.3 136.3 139.3 142.1 144.7 147.2 149.5 151.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -20. -17. -13. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 124.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##