* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 39 36 33 31 30 27 31 32 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 41 39 36 33 31 30 27 31 32 34 35 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 35 31 29 26 24 22 22 23 24 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 8 6 4 5 6 9 8 5 4 10 8 10 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 -3 -2 2 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 -5 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 206 206 213 212 180 206 229 188 183 174 187 276 254 226 90 58 20 SST (C) 25.4 25.6 25.6 24.7 25.1 24.5 23.7 23.9 24.5 24.6 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 121 111 116 109 101 103 109 110 118 122 124 125 125 126 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 60 58 56 49 47 45 45 42 41 40 42 42 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 13 12 12 10 12 11 12 12 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 46 48 45 54 53 52 40 17 0 -16 -38 -46 -66 -79 -81 200 MB DIV -17 -8 9 14 10 0 -13 15 -7 7 -8 -8 -8 21 31 7 -36 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 6 3 3 1 2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1626 1712 1799 1897 2002 2120 1791 1474 1206 960 768 659 583 579 626 734 831 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.3 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.5 128.8 130.3 131.7 134.6 137.7 140.7 143.3 145.9 148.5 150.8 152.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 11 12 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -10. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 126.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 3.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##