* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 29 27 28 28 30 31 31 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 29 27 28 28 30 31 31 33 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 41 39 34 31 28 26 24 23 23 24 26 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 5 6 8 9 11 10 10 6 8 5 6 4 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 1 1 -4 -2 -4 0 -5 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 205 212 227 211 188 220 224 192 186 180 214 247 235 198 75 50 34 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.7 25.2 25.3 24.3 23.7 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 112 117 118 107 101 103 106 114 119 124 124 125 126 127 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.4 -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 57 56 53 48 46 47 43 41 41 41 43 43 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 45 48 57 54 57 43 35 8 -5 -24 -34 -55 -68 -81 -82 200 MB DIV -9 5 15 5 -3 -8 3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 5 29 18 -28 -10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 3 0 2 4 3 2 2 -3 2 -2 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1696 1796 1903 2022 2146 1932 1623 1317 1045 816 671 592 576 612 656 734 839 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.8 19.3 20.0 21.1 22.3 23.4 24.6 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.9 130.4 131.9 133.4 136.4 139.3 142.2 144.9 147.5 149.8 152.0 154.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -14. -12. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 127.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##