* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 37 34 29 26 25 24 27 28 28 29 29 29 28 V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 37 34 29 26 25 24 27 28 28 29 29 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 34 31 28 25 23 23 23 25 26 26 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 9 13 11 12 10 7 4 4 11 13 20 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 -7 -4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 224 218 201 219 221 220 216 210 205 240 243 220 353 3 41 20 50 SST (C) 24.8 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.7 23.8 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.5 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 112 119 119 115 112 102 103 106 114 119 124 123 125 128 129 125 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 55 53 49 46 47 44 43 43 42 45 47 53 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 44 46 45 50 42 30 9 -10 -31 -54 -72 -75 -71 -79 -97 200 MB DIV 8 8 -11 -7 -2 0 -12 10 19 0 3 12 22 9 -28 -37 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 4 7 5 4 3 5 3 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1900 2018 2140 2114 1955 1634 1307 1030 796 656 608 659 761 817 898 1051 1261 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.8 22.0 23.3 24.8 26.5 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.2 131.7 133.2 134.7 136.2 139.2 142.3 145.0 147.6 149.9 152.0 153.9 155.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -16. -19. -20. -21. -18. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 130.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##