* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 38 35 30 27 27 27 29 31 30 27 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 38 35 30 27 27 27 29 31 30 27 25 23 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 35 31 29 27 26 26 28 30 30 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 12 13 12 5 8 5 4 10 18 22 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 220 202 210 219 223 224 212 208 202 217 264 295 11 11 12 16 34 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.5 25.3 25.8 26.2 25.8 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 116 112 106 106 106 109 117 122 126 123 128 127 127 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 52 51 49 46 47 43 45 43 44 47 50 47 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 49 48 47 46 36 18 0 -12 -38 -59 -69 -71 -80 -85 -97 200 MB DIV 14 3 -7 -7 -13 1 -2 20 16 10 3 39 21 7 -4 -16 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 2 4 2 4 3 0 5 3 1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2021 2152 2094 1940 1786 1456 1161 905 704 636 643 725 832 942 1026 1148 1322 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.3 22.7 24.1 25.7 27.5 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.7 133.3 134.9 136.4 137.8 140.9 143.7 146.3 148.9 150.9 152.7 154.7 157.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 12 14 12 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -16. -14. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 131.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##