* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HENRIETTE EP082025 08/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 40 39 33 28 25 25 24 24 27 26 25 24 23 19 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 40 39 33 28 25 25 24 24 27 26 25 24 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 37 33 30 27 26 25 26 28 29 28 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 11 9 12 13 14 12 9 7 4 14 19 14 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 1 -3 -6 -4 -2 -4 -5 -5 2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 203 209 213 225 227 209 219 211 208 211 190 41 344 353 343 9 23 SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.2 25.0 25.6 26.0 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.5 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 115 112 106 103 103 106 115 121 124 123 127 130 129 128 118 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.0 -55.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 49 47 45 45 44 42 43 43 45 47 50 49 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 11 11 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 45 47 50 43 30 13 -6 -29 -45 -71 -73 -98 -108 -116 -123 200 MB DIV 7 -8 -11 -18 -5 -6 21 11 -5 -4 -1 15 -10 -37 -41 -18 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 5 2 6 6 4 3 4 0 -6 -4 -6 2 LAND (KM) 2140 2114 1955 1784 1614 1297 1029 792 640 596 641 727 888 1099 1314 1436 1474 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 26.4 28.1 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.7 136.2 137.8 139.4 142.4 145.0 147.6 150.2 152.3 154.1 156.2 158.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 14 13 11 12 14 14 13 9 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. -12. -13. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -12. -17. -20. -20. -21. -21. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.3 133.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 3.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082025 HENRIETTE 08/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##