* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 59 56 50 43 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 59 56 50 43 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 59 58 54 49 43 37 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 0 0 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 45 37 39 49 41 46 48 44 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.1 27.0 26.6 26.6 25.5 24.6 24.1 23.2 22.7 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 145 133 128 128 117 108 103 94 90 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 72 73 71 66 64 61 61 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 16 16 15 17 16 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 8 15 22 29 21 12 9 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 60 69 29 -6 -6 -1 15 5 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 303 323 370 430 495 586 695 803 932 1100 1305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.8 112.7 113.5 114.2 115.8 117.6 119.2 121.1 123.3 125.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -5. -12. -19. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 110.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 27.7% 20.0% 16.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 10.0% 7.0% 5.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.5% 7.0% 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##