* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/09/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 58 57 54 48 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 58 57 54 48 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 56 55 50 43 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 13 8 11 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -1 -1 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 32 31 45 57 40 67 52 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.5 24.6 24.1 23.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 136 129 129 128 108 103 94 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 71 68 65 62 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 17 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 4 4 18 20 29 10 5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 67 30 -6 -19 -22 -5 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 -4 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 374 424 486 530 610 734 849 1010 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.6 113.3 114.1 114.9 116.7 118.5 120.5 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 111.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/09/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.41 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 24.5% 19.2% 15.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.5% 6.5% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.8% 5.2% 3.7% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/09/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##