* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * IVO EP092025 08/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 36 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 36 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 43 40 35 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 16 15 9 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 42 49 40 43 52 35 43 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.1 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 121 114 99 92 83 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 66 67 60 60 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 17 21 22 7 4 -15 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -17 -17 1 -6 -13 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -7 -1 -2 -1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 332 379 422 464 511 659 788 957 1123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.2 113.9 114.9 115.8 117.9 120.1 122.3 124.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -20. -28. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.9 112.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092025 IVO 08/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092025 IVO 08/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##