* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JULIETTE EP102025 08/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 46 49 51 50 49 42 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 46 49 51 50 49 42 34 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 40 36 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 9 9 6 1 11 15 10 16 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 3 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 27 51 55 39 77 193 231 267 244 218 220 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.4 27.9 27.6 26.7 24.8 23.6 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 149 143 140 131 110 97 87 83 79 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 71 70 68 63 56 50 46 44 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 18 18 20 21 20 18 18 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 39 46 50 33 20 1 -19 -22 -31 -35 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 91 76 58 54 40 17 -9 -27 1 5 -11 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -5 -4 -5 2 1 9 12 7 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 726 749 782 823 837 867 841 803 792 804 812 846 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.7 114.7 115.7 116.6 118.3 119.8 120.9 121.6 122.1 122.5 122.8 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 15 12 9 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 14. 7. -1. -8. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 112.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102025 JULIETTE 08/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.94 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 19.3% 16.3% 13.2% 10.0% 19.7% 19.2% 9.6% Logistic: 1.5% 8.2% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.2% 6.5% 4.8% 3.4% 7.1% 6.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 7.6% 4.7% 3.4% 2.2% 4.5% 4.8% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102025 JULIETTE 08/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##