* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JULIETTE EP102025 08/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 68 69 66 61 51 40 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 68 69 66 61 51 40 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 64 66 65 58 50 40 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 8 5 3 12 12 14 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 5 3 0 0 2 1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 48 39 47 73 280 241 266 208 218 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 24.9 23.4 22.7 22.2 21.9 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 141 137 132 112 95 87 81 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 67 66 59 50 47 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 23 23 23 21 20 17 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 56 50 33 28 12 -13 -17 -24 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 55 61 50 46 10 -4 -4 7 1 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 2 3 4 14 8 3 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 831 866 866 876 880 851 820 810 800 793 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.6 21.1 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.2 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.0 117.8 118.5 120.0 121.2 121.8 122.3 122.5 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 10 8 6 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 9 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -9. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 14. 11. 6. -4. -15. -28. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.5 115.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.3% 45.0% 35.3% 22.9% 14.0% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 13.7% 6.3% 2.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 19.8% 14.0% 8.5% 4.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 26.0% 28.0% 19.0% 15.0% 13.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 18.1% 23.9% 16.5% 11.7% 8.9% 5.7% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##