* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JULIETTE EP102025 08/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 55 53 49 44 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 55 53 49 44 37 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 54 51 45 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 9 6 2 8 14 12 19 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 2 0 2 0 1 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 39 46 64 111 233 245 239 214 220 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.8 25.7 24.3 23.1 22.2 21.9 21.7 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 132 120 105 92 81 78 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 66 62 58 48 43 35 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 19 18 18 14 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 49 31 22 12 -3 -13 -12 -16 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 45 42 35 7 1 9 19 -10 2 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 3 2 1 12 13 8 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 838 836 830 837 818 785 763 758 793 836 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.9 20.6 22.1 23.5 24.5 25.3 25.6 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.7 117.5 118.2 118.9 120.3 121.2 121.7 122.1 122.6 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -17. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. -18. -28. -37. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.0 115.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 19.9% 17.0% 13.9% 10.6% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.0% 5.8% 4.7% 3.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 4.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##