* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JULIETTE EP102025 08/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 53 48 40 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 53 48 40 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 56 53 45 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 4 2 5 10 15 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 1 3 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 33 70 135 231 226 241 208 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 26.8 25.6 24.5 23.7 22.7 22.0 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 132 120 108 98 87 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 65 60 60 54 48 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 19 16 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 25 16 11 -7 -23 -11 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 35 31 14 7 25 17 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 2 3 5 14 10 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 794 787 785 787 783 752 736 740 746 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.9 21.7 23.1 24.1 25.1 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.7 118.5 119.3 120.4 121.1 121.8 122.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 7 6 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -17. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -20. -28. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.7 116.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 16.6% 15.8% 13.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.8% 5.4% 4.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102025 JULIETTE 08/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##