* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 53 59 63 64 65 64 63 63 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 53 59 63 64 65 64 63 63 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 35 37 37 36 35 33 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 11 8 6 4 4 9 8 12 13 9 5 1 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 0 1 8 8 6 SHEAR DIR 71 55 68 69 53 32 350 292 274 227 223 215 206 214 182 119 246 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.1 26.0 26.4 25.6 25.3 25.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 150 151 150 147 147 141 134 124 123 128 119 116 120 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 79 74 74 70 66 65 61 59 58 58 56 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 12 14 16 17 18 18 17 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -8 -8 -10 -6 -6 3 9 10 22 28 38 37 42 40 24 28 200 MB DIV 9 27 48 57 34 9 -2 -19 6 56 58 53 17 -3 -9 -8 -18 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 2 1 3 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1047 1103 1148 1163 1172 1216 1290 1372 1452 1540 1644 1773 1930 2089 2214 2008 1828 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.8 113.7 114.6 115.6 117.4 119.0 120.6 122.2 123.9 125.7 127.6 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 31 30 29 30 26 21 18 13 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 12. 13. 11. 10. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 33. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. 43. 43. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 112.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 4.5% 7.5% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##