* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 51 58 66 69 68 68 66 64 63 63 60 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 51 58 66 69 68 68 66 64 63 63 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 34 36 37 38 37 35 33 32 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 16 13 12 10 8 9 7 8 15 13 5 3 7 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 2 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 63 55 49 53 25 323 293 254 212 184 200 194 72 108 167 161 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.5 27.2 25.9 25.8 25.0 25.2 24.7 25.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 144 145 145 148 139 135 122 121 113 116 111 121 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 76 76 76 72 69 69 65 62 61 58 56 48 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 19 20 20 21 19 17 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -5 -8 -6 -4 -2 3 17 22 39 37 39 38 17 22 15 200 MB DIV 44 64 40 48 34 -3 -28 6 44 25 56 -5 10 -19 -12 -22 -26 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 1 1 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1242 1279 1281 1275 1275 1301 1344 1411 1467 1557 1635 1743 1876 2045 2123 1840 1524 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.9 116.6 117.9 119.2 120.8 122.5 124.1 125.9 127.8 130.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 28 29 31 28 22 17 13 8 7 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 10. 15. 17. 16. 16. 13. 9. 9. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 31. 38. 46. 49. 48. 48. 46. 44. 43. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 113.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 16.0% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 7.6% 20.3% 42.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% Consensus: 0.3% 5.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 2.5% 6.9% 14.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##