* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 52 60 63 64 65 65 67 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 52 60 63 64 65 65 67 66 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 36 37 37 38 39 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 11 9 8 8 7 7 10 13 8 3 6 7 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 54 55 62 38 356 302 292 207 191 170 170 138 57 85 61 23 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.4 26.5 26.1 26.4 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 147 145 145 145 148 141 138 128 124 127 119 122 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 79 75 76 75 74 71 69 67 62 60 59 59 54 51 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 17 18 19 20 19 21 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -12 -13 -10 -9 -17 -6 2 12 20 39 33 48 28 27 30 36 200 MB DIV 55 39 42 30 17 -43 -17 18 29 21 32 -14 -30 -15 -19 -12 9 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1242 1268 1252 1255 1258 1290 1345 1409 1468 1561 1662 1788 1906 2064 2233 2082 1873 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.4 115.0 115.7 116.3 117.6 119.0 120.5 122.1 123.8 125.6 127.6 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 28 28 29 31 29 23 19 16 11 9 7 6 6 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 14. 15. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 32. 40. 43. 44. 45. 45. 47. 46. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 113.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 3.0% 9.9% 25.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 3.3% 8.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##