* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 53 61 65 69 72 72 71 70 71 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 35 44 53 61 65 69 72 72 71 70 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 47 54 62 67 69 68 69 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 4 3 3 2 6 6 7 5 12 11 12 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -7 -8 -8 -6 -7 -3 -2 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 72 77 81 68 105 15 73 84 119 89 81 77 93 103 85 68 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 146 147 148 145 141 143 142 140 141 139 139 134 136 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 69 69 71 72 67 68 69 69 67 65 64 61 58 55 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 12 13 16 17 17 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 5 19 18 9 18 21 13 14 26 29 35 34 27 14 11 200 MB DIV 29 21 0 0 -20 -31 -8 36 59 63 61 20 24 32 10 -3 -11 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1228 1264 1328 1406 1475 1618 1753 1870 1966 2050 2138 2222 2316 2340 2203 2042 1899 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.1 119.2 120.2 121.1 122.8 124.3 125.7 126.8 128.0 129.3 130.6 131.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 27 25 23 23 21 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 16 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 39. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 24. 33. 41. 45. 49. 52. 52. 51. 50. 51. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 116.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 12.5% 4.4% 2.9% 0.9% 7.5% 2.4% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.3% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##