* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 45 54 62 65 68 71 70 71 70 70 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 45 54 62 65 68 71 70 71 70 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 33 38 42 47 51 54 56 57 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 3 2 3 5 4 5 2 6 6 6 2 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 1 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 70 81 71 52 68 7 67 71 111 133 85 74 123 135 138 222 217 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 26.7 26.7 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 147 148 143 138 135 135 137 140 130 130 138 133 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 67 66 66 65 63 61 60 58 57 52 49 47 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 11 9 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -5 3 3 2 3 13 13 17 23 26 42 35 35 23 7 6 6 200 MB DIV 4 -1 -23 -40 -21 4 26 21 29 31 10 23 32 38 5 1 -15 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1274 1322 1375 1442 1504 1624 1722 1818 1902 1990 2090 2226 2253 2069 1868 1664 1486 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.9 119.7 120.6 121.4 123.0 124.4 125.7 127.1 128.5 130.1 132.0 133.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 25 23 22 19 18 17 16 16 14 11 13 14 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 25. 34. 42. 45. 48. 51. 50. 51. 50. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 118.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 24.7% 9.2% 5.7% 1.8% 14.0% 20.2% 29.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 9.3% 3.1% 1.9% 0.6% 4.7% 6.9% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##