* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 32 42 53 59 63 66 67 68 68 67 70 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 32 42 53 59 63 66 67 68 68 67 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 37 41 45 47 50 51 52 53 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 2 1 3 3 1 7 4 8 8 9 5 5 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 0 -3 -6 -3 -8 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 80 70 33 40 16 6 111 88 147 122 97 75 127 123 140 97 356 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.5 26.4 26.9 27.1 26.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 148 146 141 136 136 135 140 139 128 132 135 124 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 66 66 65 64 65 62 60 55 57 52 48 42 40 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -7 -4 6 14 21 20 33 36 50 38 31 19 4 5 -2 200 MB DIV -1 -24 -35 -15 -2 7 28 18 35 0 -18 -1 3 16 -10 -30 -2 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 2 -3 LAND (KM) 1323 1367 1429 1486 1539 1646 1738 1841 1923 2028 2153 2294 2141 1933 1732 1494 1249 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.4 120.2 121.0 121.8 123.4 124.7 126.1 127.5 129.2 131.0 133.0 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 26 24 23 21 19 18 17 16 15 12 10 12 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 22. 33. 39. 43. 46. 47. 48. 48. 47. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 118.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 12.9% 4.4% 2.5% 0.4% 8.0% 21.6% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 5.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.7% 7.2% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##