* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP932025 08/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 63 68 72 74 75 77 75 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 63 68 72 74 75 77 75 73 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 47 53 59 64 67 70 73 72 69 68 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 4 2 6 4 5 8 8 3 4 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -6 -6 -3 -6 -5 -1 -3 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 78 62 102 87 45 103 71 114 149 55 63 69 88 142 258 293 294 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.5 26.5 27.0 26.7 25.6 26.3 26.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 147 144 142 135 135 135 139 139 129 134 131 120 128 131 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 64 64 64 62 61 58 55 54 51 48 46 47 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 2 14 17 25 25 32 40 48 37 26 21 25 38 28 25 200 MB DIV -16 -31 -13 3 2 39 25 30 51 47 8 8 12 8 -7 6 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1382 1440 1491 1556 1615 1722 1825 1923 2036 2168 2316 2099 1868 1607 1314 1014 757 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.7 121.6 122.4 123.2 124.7 126.0 127.5 129.1 131.0 133.1 135.3 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 11 13 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 22 22 21 18 18 17 17 16 13 10 11 7 7 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 10. 8. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 30. 38. 43. 47. 49. 50. 52. 50. 48. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 119.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 20.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 39.9% 19.4% 14.8% 3.7% 23.7% 16.8% 14.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 20.7% 12.1% 4.9% 1.3% 15.1% 12.4% 4.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932025 INVEST 08/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##